Web3 is drowning in metrics, most of which paint an unclear image. Transaction volumes, token costs and flashy headlines typically masks what actually issues: the standard of person engagement and the potential for natural, exponential development. Because the trade strikes past the hype, dependable, data-driven indicators of success are now not elective — they’re important.
Right here’s the excellent news: the instruments to chop by way of the noise exist already. By combining a number of on-chain metrics right into a single “well being index” rating indicating the depth and high quality of total person engagement, we are able to establish which chains are actually thriving and poised for long-term development. With 2024 coming to an in depth, let’s dig into what these indicators reveal about as we speak’s main chains, and what we are able to count on in 2025.
Assessing person high quality utilizing aggregated, not remoted, knowledge
When making a sustainable on-chain ecosystem, it doesn’t make sense to optimize any single person motion. What’s wanted is context — a approach to quantify not simply every thing customers are doing, however how and why it issues. One promising strategy to realize that is to combination person behaviors into 5 core classes:
- Transaction Exercise, starting from spot trades to good contract interactions.
- Token Accumulation within the medium-to-long-term, and different “funding” behaviors.
- DeFi Engagement for actions like staking, lending and liquidity provision.
- NFT Exercise reminiscent of minting, buying and selling and utility-driven interactions.
- Governance Participation to quantify DAO or protocol governance contributions.
Crucially, these metrics shouldn’t be handled equally. A greater strategy is to weigh and mix them utilizing a Bayesian mannequin to generate a single top-line “rating.” In contrast to conventional scoring techniques that depend on static thresholds or easy averages, this lets us incorporate each prior data (what we count on from an “common” pockets) and new proof (precise exercise noticed on-chain). These dynamic, multi-variate scores are a lot tougher to recreation and subsequently extra more likely to reveal correct, actionable insights.
What the info tells us about 2024
The above strategy offers a recent perspective on every chain’s person exercise by way of 2024. Let’s zoom in on among the extra stunning findings.
Solana (the highest mild blue line that peaks at ~2.75) attracted an enormous share of high-quality customers between February and mid-March, however engagement high quality has fallen since. Curiously, this downslide coincided with SOL’s first value and buying and selling quantity spike of 2024, and has continued by way of the present memecoin mania. Repetitive actions have diminishing returns when assessed utilizing a Bayesian mannequin, that means a number of token swaps yield smaller rating enhancements than engagement throughout a number of forms of actions, for any given pockets. This implies most Solana customers are presently engaged in a slender vary of on-chain actions that aren’t contributing to Solana’s multi-sector development.
As for Ethereum supporters (the underside orange line that begins at simply above 1) who anticipated this yr’s ETH ETFs to be a game-changer, the numbers paint a unique image. Ethereum’s low and secure person rating by way of H1 2024 means that this yr’s bullish developments didn’t spur broader ecosystem participation reminiscent of DeFi exercise and protocol governance.
It’s additionally price noting that Axelar (the darkish blue line that begins at 2.5) had probably the most energetic customers throughout the broadest vary of on-chain actions relative to its complete person base, in line with the info. Whereas Axelar is presently a lot smaller by TVL than the legacy chains dominating as we speak’s headlines, that is an intriguing sign that warrants nearer inspection — and would have been missed if we had been market cap or buying and selling quantity alone.
The takeaway right here isn’t that Solana is doomed and Axelar will inevitably change into the world’s largest chain. There’s restricted worth in evaluating some of these scores throughout chains, since every rating is proportional to the person high quality of its corresponding chain. In different phrases, a Solana person with a rating of “4” could also be very totally different from a “4” on Axelar, given the variations in every chain’s baseline exercise. As such, these scores are most helpful when monitoring modifications within the high quality of a series’s total person exercise over time, not cross-chain comparisons.
Predictions for 2025
With that stated, what does every chain’s person high quality observe report inform us about subsequent yr?
For starters, it’s clear that Solana faces vital challenges and alternatives coming into 2025. The chain’s trajectory relies on its skill to retain its large informal person base and broaden their vary of on-chain interactions. Failure to take action may lead to a big stoop as soon as memecoins cool off — though knowledge from early 2024 suggests the chain has a big contingent of high quality customers that can endure no matter what occurs short-term.
2024 demonstrated Axelar’s skill to draw a concentrated person base engaged in various, sustained on-chain actions, quite than speculative surges. Now, Axelar’s problem will probably be upscaling its ecosystem with out diluting the standard of its person base. This may occasionally contain prioritizing high-profile partnerships to unlock new audiences whereas creating extra newbie-friendly onramps throughout its dApp ecosystem.
Ethereum’s fragmentation has shifted many energetic customers to its sooner, cheaper L2 ecosystem, and so we might even see mainnet exercise more and more consolidate round core options protocol staking and governance. These actions are vital for the broader EVM ecosystem, however this trajectory could also be penalized by scoring techniques that reward various on-chain engagement.
This dynamic underscores a problem for scoring techniques: prioritizing wide-ranging person exercise can current an incomplete image when utilized to task-specific networks (or basic objective chains which can be evolving into one thing extra specialised). In consequence, it’s essential to obviously outline what success means for no matter chain is being evaluated and use a scoring system that captures the corresponding person actions.
A greater approach to outline, and drive, on-chain development
Web3 has spent too lengthy chasing the mistaken metrics and failing to view the info in combination. In 2025, the winners will probably be those that discover multivariate methods to measure — and act on — what issues most: person high quality.
By incorporating new scoring strategies into their dashboards, on-chain intelligence platforms can present extra significant insights to traders and trade observers. On the similar time, Web3 builders can use these scores to make clear prime priorities and drive person engagement and worth creation. In the end, it will assist all the trade shift away from hype-driven narratives to data-backed methods that unlock the total potential of Web3 in 2025 and past.
