This week our forex strategists targeted on the U.S. CPI Report (January 2025) for potential high-quality setups in U.S. greenback pairs.
Out of the 4 situation/worth outlook discussions this week, one dialogue arguably noticed each fundie & technical arguments triggered to turn out to be potential candidates for a commerce & danger administration overlay.
Watchlists are worth outlook & technique discussions supported by each elementary & technical evaluation, a vital step in the direction of making a top quality discretionary commerce concept earlier than engaged on a danger & commerce administration plan.
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GBP/USD: Tuesday – February 11, 2025
GBP/USD 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView
On Tuesday, our strategists had their sights set on the U.S. CPI report and its potential impression on the greenback. Based mostly on our Occasion Information, expectations had been for headline CPI to rise 0.2% m/m (vs. 0.4% earlier) and core CPI to extend 0.3% m/m (vs. 0.2% earlier). The annual headline charge was forecast to carry regular at 2.9%.
With these expectations in thoughts, right here’s what we had been pondering:
The “Greenback Dominance” Situation:
If CPI got here in hotter than anticipated, we anticipated this might dampen Fed charge lower expectations. We targeted on USD/CHF for potential lengthy methods if danger sentiment was constructive, notably given the SNB’s current openness to damaging rates of interest if wanted. In a risk-off atmosphere, NZD/USD brief made sense given the Kiwi’s risk-on traits and a current failure to interrupt above vary highs.
The “Greenback Descent” Situation:
If inflation information confirmed important cooling, aligning with current PPI tendencies, we thought this might gas Fed charge lower expectations. We thought-about GBP/USD for potential lengthy methods in a risk-on atmosphere, particularly given the bounce in 2025 and its comparatively excessive rate of interest in comparison with the remainder of the majors. If danger sentiment leaned damaging, USD/JPY shorts regarded promising given JPY’s protected haven standing and the BOJ’s much less dovish stance in 2025 to this point.
What Truly Occurred:
The January CPI report confirmed combined however typically hotter-than-expected outcomes:
- Headline CPI rose 0.5% m/m (vs. 0.3% forecast)
- Core CPI elevated 0.4% m/m (vs. 0.3% forecast
- Annual headline CPI climbed to three.0% y/y (vs. 2.9% forecast)
These outcomes had been scorching, however market rhetoric was fast to play off the numbers provided that January’s reads are typically hotter as exercise picks up from the vacation season.
Not too lengthy after the CPI occasion, Fed Chair Powell testified concerning the Semi-Annual Financial Coverage Report earlier than the Home Monetary Companies Committee, which appears to have been a market mover and needs to be thought-about when creating a bias on the Dollar on the session. A number of the most important takeaways had been:
- Fed Chair Powell emphasised they’re not in a rush to regulate coverage
- Powell reiterated they’re watching core PCE extra intently
Market Response:
On condition that the market rapidly swapped biases again to bearish on USD regardless of the new CPI learn, and Powell’s tempered feedback on rate of interest expectations, we thought a bearish greenback bias was acceptable. And with the markets swinging from internet damaging broad sentiment from earlier within the week in the direction of constructive as tariff fears ebbed, we thought our GBP/USD watch put up had the perfect odds of a possible constructive final result.
Wanting on the GBP/USD chart, we noticed preliminary promoting strain after the warmer CPI print, with the pair dropping from round 1.2450 to check the pivot level (1.2396). Nevertheless, the bearish momentum was short-lived as merchants appeared to look previous the headline numbers.
The pair discovered robust assist on the pivot level stage, which coincided with the 20-period shifting common. Powell’s subsequent dovish remarks throughout his Congressional testimony helped gas a rally, pushing GBP/USD by the R1 (1.2544) resistance stage.
Sterling’s advance was additional supported by constructive U.Okay. information, together with better-than-expected December GDP (0.4% m/m vs 0.1% forecast) and industrial manufacturing figures (0.5% m/m vs 0.2% forecast). By Friday’s shut, weaker U.S. retail gross sales information (-0.9% vs 0.0% forecast) had helped drive GBP/USD to check the rising ‘highs’ sample, the place the rally was halted forward of the weekend.
The Verdict:
So, how’d we do? In our opinion, we thought our authentic dialogue was “extremely probably” supportive of a internet constructive final result. Whereas the preliminary elementary set off (scorching CPI) supported USD power, the market typically dismissed it on account of seasonality and switched focus rapidly to Powell’s testimony, which was arguably impartial rhetoric. Gotta adapt to what the market offers ya, proper?
For merchants who waited for affirmation of assist on the pivot level stage after the CPI-induced dip, they might have captured a considerable transfer increased as each elementary catalysts (Fed converse, weak U.S. information) and technical components (shifting common assist, pivot level ranges) aligned effectively and resulted in bullish momentum.
For many who had been a bit late to the celebration and waited for a break of 1.2450 resistance to specific an extended bias, they nonetheless probably had a constructive final result given the bearish sentiment on the Dollar on the finish of the week.
