Investing.com — The greenback just lately notched recent year-to-date highs towards its rivals and is more likely to stay robust after the Federal Reserve leaned extra hawkish at its latest December assembly, analysts from UBS stated in a latest word.
“Whereas we nonetheless count on the greenback to fall, we now see much less weak point in 2025 given these elements and regulate our forecasts barely,” analysts from UBS stated in a latest word.
The much less bearish view on the USD comes within the wake of the dollar making recent year-to-date highs in key change charges and the expectations for fewer U.S. fee cuts.
“The USD has been pushed these days by prospects of fewer Fed fee cuts and tariff dangers,” the analysts stated.
The euro has been significantly affected by greenback energy, however is predicted to commerce round $1.05 towards the dollar within the first half of 2025, the analysts forecast.
However a big drop towards parity for the cannot be dominated out, “because of actual tariff threats or additional divergence within the macro backdrop between the US and Europe,” the analysts added.
Nonetheless, any transfer towards parity must be short-lived, the analysts stated, amid expectations for the financial backdrop in Europe to enhance within the second half of the yr, narrowing the divergence between Europe and U.S. yields.
“The trajectory again into the center of the buying and selling vary or greater, 1.08 to 1.10, comes with the view that two-year yield differentials will nonetheless slender to a point and higher macro knowledge out of Europe present some underlying assist for EURUSD in 2H25,” the analysts stated.
